The Jets won't make the Playoffs
Rex Ryan may be the king of the F-bombs, but he better use as many as he can during the regular season. The Jets won’t be making the playoffs.
The Jets used up all their luck last year. There are no playoff-bound cakewalk games at the end of this season’s schedule. Opposing kickers are all out jinxed out. Oh yeah, and Mark Sanchez still sucks as an NFL quarterback. His upside is "Jake Plummer" not Broadway Joe. Let’s ditch the Sanchize label right now.
Look, I’m not saying the Jets will be a bad team, but they are in a division with two legitimately tough opponents and in a conference with other good wildcard candidates. They also got a lot of breaks last year and just don’t seem likely to repeat.
To begin with, let’s relive how the Jets got into the playoffs last year. At 7-7, they caught a break by drawing the Colts and Bengals at the end of the season, with both teams already in the playoffs. They finished 9-7 and advanced as a wildcard team due to a tiebreaker.
The Jets have built their team identity around superior defense and a pounding running game. They’re hoping to ride that same formula with an slightly improved passing game all the way to the Superbowl this year. I’m not saying it’s a bad formula, but it’s not going to work.
How Will the Red Sox Strike Back in 2011?
I was listening to an interview with former Blue Jays' GM JP Ricciardi the other day. As he talked about the off-season ahead, he pointed out that the Red Sox can probably be expected to make a fairly big splash, as its always been the course of action after seasons where they can't make it to the playoffs (which seems to be the likely result this year).
It got me thinking about how the Red Sox could look to improve over the off-season, and the big splashes they could make, and frankly, it left me without much of an answer.
While most would think they retain David Ortiz on a reasonable short-term deal, The Red Sox have two key free agents that they'll have to make tough decisions on. Adrian Beltre has had an insanely good season for the Red Sox, and is now almost certain to decline his player option, as he figures to find good money and a multi-year offer somewhere. In a lot of ways, it makes sense for the Red Sox to be the ones to give that contract to Beltre. He certainly seemed to find big success at Fenway Park. He plays exceptional defense at third base, which is something crucial to GM Theo Epstein. Plus, should he leave, the Red Sox would likely have a hole at third base, unless they wanted to plug Kevin Youkilis over there, take a defensive hit, and have to look for a new first baseman. Of course, re-signing Beltre has considerable risks too, as he's made a name for himself by having monstrous contract seasons and then struggling to live up to his deal.
Likewise, Victor Martinez becomes a free agent when the season comes to a close. Since being acquired at the 2009 trade deadline, Martinez has performed pretty well as an offensive-minded catcher and first-base fill-in, though his numbers have dropped some this year. Still, there is no doubt that the Red Sox would struggle to find a player that brings more offense to the catcher's spot than Martinez. The main negative with bringing back Martinez long-term is that his defensive struggles have been brought to the forefront this season. Likely, his home down the road will be at first base, and in the AL East, he certainly doesn't provide the offensive numbers to be valuable there.
Long-term, the wisest decision would likely be to let Martinez go, but finding someone to put up respectable numbers behind the plate will be a big challenge. The Red Sox would need to look to the trade market in order to find a replacement, and while it's possible that someone like Chris Iannetta could be had, it's certainly no sure bet.
Of course, the Red Sox will get quite a boost from returning players who spent the majority of the season injured. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron would certainly assist the team offensively and defensively. Added to the team the Red Sox fielded this year, having those players back would likely be enough to put them right in the battle with the Rays and Yankees. However, if Beltre and Martinez leave via free agency, there returns are likely just to cover the holes, and leave the team searching for some more fire power.
On the offensive side, however, the big free agents on the market this off-season are outfielders, like Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, as well as first-basemen like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena. While all likely impact-players, they play positions that the Red Sox are likely not to be looking for help with. Ellsbury, Cameron and JD Drew are likely to comprise the outfield, and unless surprisingly moved back to third-base, Kevin Youkilis will keep his home at first-base.
What this suggests is that perhaps if looking to make a splash through free agency, the Red Sox best bet may be to go the pitching route. Any rotation in baseball can find room for Cliff Lee, after all. The question is, would it be a smart move financially? Assuming Lee can even be had for $20M, that would commit around $52M per year to just three pitchers in the rotation (Lee, Beckett and Lackey). While Jon Lester is held on a reasonable deal and Clay Buchholz can still be had at the Major League minimum, there is still the matter of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Even if it were possible for the team to out-bid the Yankees and grab Cliff Lee, clearing a spot for him would take some creative and expensive work from the Red Sox.
Ultimately, should the Red Sox see themselves as contenders in 2011 - which I'm sure they do - getting creative on the trade market is likely their best course of action. While Cliff Lee would be an exciting acquisition, starting pitching is probably not the area the team should get carried away on. A rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka is likely to be a force to be reckoned with, as in all likelihood, Beckett and Lackey will put up better numbers.
With Daniel Bard ready to step into the closer's role, Jonathan Papelbon could be a very intriguing trade-piece. He's getting expensive, which means money freed up from him could go to a free agent acquisition. Plus, there are sure to be teams that over-value saves and are willing to part with a valuable piece in order to secure the back-end of their bullpen. Is he enough to find the team a catcher? If the rumors about the team being frustrated with Jacoby Ellsbury this year, perhaps he's an interesting trade candidate too, as dealing him away could bring back a nice prospect or two, while opening a door to acquire someone like Jayson Werth.
The Red Sox face a challenging off-season, but the key for them will be to avoid short-term thinking. The team will certainly get a boost simply from having all of their players (hopefully) healthy on opening day. While their hand may be forced with Adrian Beltre, who may simply be the best option available, and retaining David Ortiz likely makes more sense than picking up a different DH who provides the same profile, the team will have a chance to make moves at catcher, and perhaps the outfield that aid the team in gaining some well-needed youth.
Though the challenges exist, JP Ricciardi is probably right-on expecting a bunch of big splashes to be made by Theo Epstein. With the expected step back the Rays will take in the off-season, the Red Sox should be able to pull-off enough creative maneuvering to have themselves right back in the hunt in 2011.
Final Farewell To The Kid
Unfortunately we weren't able to actually set a record for our Griffey Day last month, but we did get some great pics uploaded and have selected a winner straight from Seattle.
Josh C sent in this gem of him at the Mariner's home park Safeco Field, rocking a backwards hat with his favorite beer-man (er, woman) in the stands - which we've deemed the best submission, meaning he's scored himself a free So Long Kid t-shirt from our Fan-Fits collection. And as a secondary bonus, he apparently ran into Griffey himself at an airshow in Oshkosh, Wisconsin (which seems like the exact right place to see "The Kid") just a couple of weeks ago - although we can't take any credit for that serendipitous meet-up.
We also got some love from the Backporch folks at Fanhouse, who wrote a little piece hyping the day and helping to spread the Project Franchise gospel.
Although we are sad to see the end of the Griffey era, and it makes us feel really old, we do have a bunch of other fun fan-friendly promos and giveaways coming up so stay tuned - and if you have any ideas for stuff we should be doing to get fans more involved, just let us know.
Strasmas Cancelled - Stephen Strasburg to undergo Tommy John surgery
The 2010 MLB season has been a true classic. No-hitters, perfect games, 22-inning marathon games, and a more exciting rookie class than the game has seen in years. That rookie class is headlined by Stephen Strasburg, the first overall pick from the 2009 draft whose debut in June was one of the most memorable moments of the year.
Last week, the Washington Nationals superstar left his start mid-way through after experienced clear discomfort after throwing a pitch. As he shook off his elbow, a lot of us could tell what was coming.
Today, it was announced that Stephen Strasburg will require the dreaded Tommy John surgery, to essentially replace a ligament in his pitching elbow. The recovery process for Tommy John is generally at least 12-months, though power pitchers like Strasburg often take longer to return to form.
While we all will remain optimistic that Strasburg is able to make a full recovery and return better than ever, from a fan's perspective, this is a huge blow to baseball in general. Strasburg on the mound was an event. His pitching appearances in cities around baseball drew big-time crowds. In just a few months, he has become one of the game's biggest superstars, and missing him likely for all of the the 2011 season is a true shame.
Nationals fans, of course, will take the blow the hardest. Above and beyond missing their star for the season, they'll lose a year of service time on Strasburg. That means one less year of enjoyment before he is likely to leave town for brighter pastures, and let's be honest, probably pinstripes.
Still, if Strasburg can recover fully from Tommy John surgery, he could come back better and stronger than ever. If it can lead to a healthy Strasburg having a full career as a big-league starter, than ultimately baseball fans in general will benefit.
Favre's Flip Flopping Continues
Tonight Brett Favre will step onto the field at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, once again suiting up for his "final season" (his twentieth) in the NFL. As a 49er fan in San Francisco right now, I'm happy to see Favre playing simply because it helps add some hype to tonight's otherwise boring pre-season game (since Michael Crabtree, Brian Westbrook and Frank Gore are likely not to play at all). But, as a fan who has spent the last 5+ years rooting on a team with a shaky situation at starting QB, I feel pain for the Vikings fans that have had to sweat out Favre's antics over the last few months.
We understand he's old experienced and that he doesn't want to attend need a camp full of two-a-days to get ready for the season, but it seems like he could at least come out and explain his intentions well before this point - instead of dragging out the drama on the fans.
Without Favre the Vikings are a possible NFC Wild Card team, but with him they become a legitimate Super Bowl contender - so there is no question that the fans would prefer to see him out there, rather than Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson taking snaps. However, it does seem like everyone in Minnesota would have slept a lot easier the last couple of months if he had simply explained his position and planned his return for this week.
Loads Of Sports On TV Today
The return of football to the landscape seems to be coming at the perfect time, as this is the first weekend in a while where it seems like there are more sporting events on TV than I can watch at once - which is a good problem to have.
Tiger never got going this week and although Phil is currently in the leader in the clubhouse, this years PGA Championship is being led by a group of young guys and one old school winner in Steve Elkington that have set up for what looks like an exciting end to the final round.
Between Hard Knocks on HBO and a nearly full slate of NFL pre-season games over the last few days, my eagerness to start the regular season has begun to peak - which culminated this morning with the Colts - 49ers game (as I'm an SF fan first). The pennant races in baseball are also starting to heat up, with possibly the most exciting series of the weekend also featuring my team as the Giants host the Padres. SF won on a walk-off last night and are currently trailing in their day game, as both teams vie for the lead in the NL West and NL Wild Card.
Add in the beginning of the Little League World Series, a big NASCAR race in Michigan, some Hall of Fame inductions, and even USA Basketball getting a win - and this is definitely the first solid weekend of sports viewing in quite a while.
Why I hate Phil
I guess it isn't "in vogue" to hate on Lefty these days. His "sweet as pie" wife and his mother are both going through the the hell that is cancer and he won a very emo Masters some four months ago. What's not to like about this guy? He is super long off the tee, he has imagination around the greens like a m-fer and he seems like an all around groovy guy - someone you'd love to watch a game and have a chicken sandwich with in the clubhouse post-round. My problem is that I just don't trust the guy to fully execute when he should. One of the greatest quotes about Jordan is that he "always lived up to the hype", if it was a big time game in a big time setting or if something huge was on the line you could always count on Jordan to go above and beyond what he was supposed to do in that situation and truly bring out the wow factor in doing so. This used to be the case with Tiger before the whole whores thing. I want to be clear that I am not taking anything away from Phil and his accomplishments which I readily admit make him one of the games greats, but Jordan and Tiger (pre-whores) wouldnt have dared to pull something like Phil did on number 18 at Winged Foot. They also wouldn't have pussed out when the #1 in the world ranking was there for the taking as Phillip did last week at Firestone. Everybody has written Tiger off and there is talk of him not getting the captains pick for the Ryder Cup(which is goddamn ludicrous), but my bet is that his killer instinct will kick in and you will see him, in one way or another, make a statement this week as to why he should be on that team. If Phil was in the same situation as Tiger is now I wouldnt have the same confidence.
Plus he has man tittays.
QOTH - Scottie Pippen Piping Up
Quote Of The Hour from Scottie Pippen - Spekaing on the topic of having Michael Jordan presenting him [Pippen] at his NBA Hall of Fame induction ceremony later this week: "I figure if anyone deserves to be on the stage with me, it's him."
Whoooaaaa... Slow your roll Scottie. I know this is your big day in the sun, and I sure you saw MJ using his HOF speech to talk a gang of smack last year, but let's keep some perspective. There is a "Michael Jordan" regardless of Scottie Pippen, Bill Cartwright, Luc Longley or BJ Armstrong - but their most definitely is no "Scottie Pippen" without His Airness - just ask the fine folks in Portland.
Scottie was a very good second option, who had a few nearly great seasons, but if he spent his career playing for the Warriors he woud stand about as good a chance at making the HOF as Mitch Richmond. In the one season where the Bulls became his team, Pippen had the chance in the play-offs to play the role of MJ - but he suddenly developed a headache and became a barely serviceable back-up to Tony Kukoc, destroying any chance he ever had of being considered a truly great player. He does have six rings and Jordan never won one without him, but we're not convinced that was an endorsement of Pippen or just a matter of being in the right place, at the right time (six times over again).
Home On The Range
There is a battle set to play out today in Texas, reminiscent of the classic western shootouts with the grand prize being an MLB team that's currently sitting in first place. The Rangers will officially go up on the auction block in a bankruptcy court where a strange process seems to allow the court to select a single winner, but then the MLB somehow gets final say and can select a different bidding group to take ownership.
While we don't purport to understand all of the legal nuances of the federal bankruptcy process for anti-trust exempted business entities, we do know that this appears to have come down to two groups of investors led by local sports icons who come from vastly different backgrounds and represent extremely different potential futures for the organization.
On one side of the O.K. Corral stands baseball great Nolan Ryan, the roughneck fireball hurler and Texas bad ass who has spent the last 15+ years since his retirement owning a minor league squad outside Austin and, more recently, calling the shots for the Rangers organization. The leader of the other posse is the outspoken multi-gazillionaire Mark Cuban, who made his fortune on the Internet and has spent the big bucks taking the Dallas Mavericks from perennial cellar dwellars to one of the most high profile franchises in the NBA.
Cuban has long wanted in on the MLB and last year he offered a cool billion for the Chicago Cubs, but his bid was thwarted by some untimely insider stock trading allegations that let the good old boys from the baseball fraternity keep him out. Reportedly his bid was the only new one to make its way into the auction by yesterdays deadline and its expected to include a cash component thats more than the $306.7mil that Ryan's group offered up previously.
Ryan is a legitimate living legend and as great a baseball player that the state of Texas has ever been able to claim its own. He's also done a heck of a job as Rangers team President building a team that includes one of the best pitchers in the game in Cliff Lee and arguably the greatest offensive player in the league with Josh Hamilton. They are currently in first place in the AL West, up 8 games over both the Angels and A's, and appear to be cruising towards the playoffs. Ryan's presence would continue to legitimize the new front office and most would expect him to help be a guiding force in their likely continued success.
On the other hand, Cuban is eccentrically entertaining and has already proven his worth as a Dallas area pro-sports franchise owner, having turned the pitiful Mavericks into a Finals team - all while whooping it up on the sideline as the most energetic fan in the building. If his group wins the bid, Rangers fans can have full confidence that in a league without a salary cap, Cuban will open up the checkbook and spend like he owns the Red Sox or the Yankees, which should help to ensure that the franchise is able to sustain success well into the future.
It should be interesting to see how the court rules and then how Bud Selig and the MLB owners choose to handle their decision. Either way Rangers fans are likely to have a positive outcome.
And, we welcome whichever party loses to join the Project Franchise effort as a partial owner in the minor league team we acquire - as long as they don't mind that on our team the fans will be the one's really calling the shots.
Maintaining the Faith in General Managers
At Project Franchise, we plan to one day put the power to run a team in the fan's hands. In the meantime though, we, as fans, are left putting our faith in the General Managers that run our favorite teams.
It's a great feeling to rely completely on the decisions those GM's make, and we all know those fans that go a bit overboard for it, thinking their GM's can do absolutely no wrong. Most of us, however, are a bit more objective than that. Still, it's part of being a fan to want to believe in them. They're the ones that can turn our teams into champions or tear them right down. And to those who love sports, and love their teams, all of that is quite the big deal.
With the MLB non-waiver tread deadline behind us, GM's across the league have been in the forefront for their moves and non-moves. We've seen big names traded like Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, and Roy Oswalt. But the trade that stands out to me involves names a lot of people haven't heard of - the swap between the Blue Jays and Astros of Brett Wallace and Anthony Gose. Sure, it stands out because the Blue Jays are my team. It also stands out because of how very rare it is to see prospects swapped directly for each other. But it also stands out because it's one of the rare times that I have had to challenge my faith in my General Manager, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos.
Anthopoulos took over for JP Ricciardi at the end of the 2009 season, and for the most part, I think he's done a terrific job. He added a lot of talent to the farm system in his trade of Roy Halladay - a big achievement given the restrictions Halladay placed on where he'd be willing to play - and has made significant acquisitions that have aided the major league team already, with Brandon Morrow, Yunel Escobar and Fred Lewis all looking like players that could be part of the next great Blue Jays team.
Another player I thought would be part of that team, though, was first-basemen Brett Wallace. In the aftermath of the Roy Oswalt trade last Thursday, the Jays shipped him over to Houston in exchange for center-fielder Anthony Gose, whom they had just acquired moments ago from Philadelphia. My initial thoughts: outrage.
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