Upsets ruled the board in Week 2 of the NFL season with underdogs going 5-10-1 against the spread (ATS).
Divisional favorites were a bad bet, as Baltimore, Carolina and New England were all on the losing side – not only at the betting window – but straight-up (SU) as well.
The Patriots (-14.5) this week were already listed as the biggest favorite of the season when sportsbook opened the line for their game against the Buffalo Bills. Heavy action since Monday though, has pushed the line has high as 15 points at some places. Given Buffalo’s performance so far it is quite likely that number will touch 16 points by kickoff.
SPORTS BETTING FACT
The New England Patriots (66-percent) are the second highest picked public favorite among sports bettors since 2007.
DRAW A LINE
We’ve had a chance to see most NFL teams in home and away situations but during the next few weeks bettors are going to have to start considering other factors such as early bodyclock games, divisional sandwich situations and look-ahead spots. Perhaps it will be a revenge situation or even worse – a playoff revenge game.
When this happens, astute bettors will jump quickly on favorable lines but it can work both ways. An example is this week when San Francisco (-2.5) travels to Kansas City.
Against a team that finished last season 4-12 SU that seems like an awfully low line, especially for a 49ers team that nearly knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions just a few days ago. Or does it?
San Francisco played in just one Monday Night game in 2009, it was at home and they covered the spread as an underdog. Sound familiar?
Next, the Niners had to travel to Philadelphia which is three time zones ahead for San Francisco. Kansas City is only two hours different but the unusual travel situation can still take its toll.
Kansas City is also a non-Conference foe and wouldn’t you know it; the Niners lost each of their past three road games against AFC teams. In fact the only inter-Conference road game they’ve won since Mike Singletary took over the team was 10-3 at Buffalo.
So after just a quick look at this matchup the oddsmaker’s line starts to make a lot more sense. The Chiefs’ 2-0 SU record also needs to be considered but we’re discounting a few points away from any win against the Cleveland Browns!
The 49ers were 0-4 straight-up in 2009 the first four times they traveled to play Eastern/Central time zone opponents
INTER-CONFERENCE BETTING STAT
In eight non-Conference matchups so far this year favorites are 6-2 SU but only 3-3-2 ATS.
Every one of the early games this week is either an inter-Conference or divisional matchup. Several more trends and systems are sure to develop as we move into Week 4. While it’s tough to look at all the angles, be sure to look at more than just one before placing your bets.
Check the updated NFL Odds @ sportsbetting.com